May 12, 2008

Powerset crosses the Uncanny Valley

In case you haven't heard the news, Powerset launched today.  Since I can't sleep due to launch adrenaline, I suppose it's time to weigh in on Powerset unofficially.  It's fun to write a press release, but it's more fun to philosophize on my own time!

Powerset_uncanny_valley Last year, I came across the concept of the Uncanny Valley though an employee of PARC.  The basic concept runs something like this: as you make a robot more like a human being, people tend to respond with more empathy.  However, there's a dip in the empathy curve when the robot looks enough like a human, but has behavior incongruent with what we'd expect from a real human being.  We tend to forgive weird mannerisms (jerkiness, oddities in speech, etc.) when a robot looks like a robot.  When a robot looks like a human, we expect it to act like a human.

As an example, cartoon characters are usually more believable than computer generated characters, unless the CG is so perfect as to be indistinguishable from reality.

Keyword search engines sit somewhere on the left of the curve.  We're willing to accept the choppy "keywordese" language of a search engine because we appreciate the results that come back and we can make excuses when it goes awry: "It's just a computer.  It doesn't really understand me."  As with most technology products, the utility curve and the expectation curve are aligned exactly because we treat keyword search engines as an unfeeling technology.

Oddly enough, when a system is endowed with an understanding of meaning (call it "semantics"), we suddenly demand that the system act, think, infer, and comprehend just like another human.  Instead of just being a cold of technology, we begin to treat the system with agency and want it to act like other agents (i.e., humans). 

The question shouldn't (and can't) be about releasing a system that has a perfect understanding of language, because that perfect understanding is many years down the road.  How is it that companies like Radar, TrueKnowledge, and Powerset believe that we can create products based on imperfect technology?

There are two ways to stay out of the Uncanny Valley.  First, create unique features that are so compelling that users are willing to deal with imperfection.  Keyword search hasn't survived because we always get the right answer - plenty of searches yield nothing.  But, though we may get wrong answers, we often enough get answers that would never have been possible before keyword search.  Second, access to semantic features shouldn't require a significant change in user behavior.  No matter how good (or "natural") a feature is, if a user has trouble finding it, it won't get used.

People often think that NL search is doomed to failure both because computers don't understand enough and, even if they did, users won't start entering natural language queries.

I think Powerset has scored on both counts.  As an example, for topical queries like moses or machiavelli, Powerset assembles a summary of Factz based on our deep linguistic analysis of each sentence.  This kind of automatic aggregation of content just wasn't possible before Powerset.  But, users don't have to do anything special.  They just get Factz "for free" by using their keyword usage paradigm.

I'm really proud of Powerset's first product.  The debate on whether or not we've crossed the valley will continue, but one thing is certain: a better, more natural way of interacting with technology is coming. (Of course, whether we sit to the left or the right of the Uncanny Valley is the subject for another post.)

Bed time, finally!

May 01, 2008

The Cashmore Effect


  Pete Cashmore modeling for Apple 
  Originally uploaded by philosophygeek

Is it the wry smile or the foreign accent?   The suave clothes or the sexy scruff?  His techie tools or vibrating strings?  Maybe it's just that je ne sais quoi

The elements making up Peter Cashmore may be under debate, but his effect is clear to the throngs begging for his attention.

Therefore, I conjecture, The Cashmore Effect: Pete Cashmore doubles the activity in his immediate area.

As proof, putting his picture on my puny blog will double my traffic tomorrow, which will be irrefutable empirical evidence of my theory.

Missed Connection: Mark Johnson

A friend sent this to me with the Subject: "You whore!!!" To clarify: I was not on this flight so it couldn't have been me. Quite funny, nonetheless.

April 27, 2008

Concerning Isolation

Concerning Isolation by Mark Johnson

Sever relations when times they are rough:
Giving tough love is easier than being tough.
Keep those that you have in a simple divide
With love on your face, but the true love inside.
Charm them up front, but don't let them close
In the long run the distance is better for both.
You sprint far ahead, but whatever you do
They'll be quick on your heels: they're herd through and through.

Written on 4/27/08 at In-n-Out

April 17, 2008

Bob Barr in 2008?

I hosted an event at my house in late 2007 that featured former Georgia Senator Bob Barr speaking to a group of libertarian-minded leaders.  The group included representatives from libertarian think-tank Pacific Research Institute, the Federalist Society, the EFF, the Ron Paul campaign, and of course, the Libertarian Party.  Barr gave an inspirational speech on his journey from the Republican to the Libertarian Party.  What impressed me the most was Barr's ability to channel the energy of the gathered crowd: though most people present were "small-l" libertarians, Barr carefully explained the Libertarian position in a very approachable way.  Too often members of the LP seem caustic and opinionated when talking about libertarian issues, which doesn't win any converts.

Therefore, I was pleased to see that Barr recently announced his intention to explore a bid to run as the Libertarian candidate for president.  Barr's political experience is evident in the way he deftly answered questions from Hannity and Colmes.  Instead of diving deep into the LP's platform, he stayed appropriately high-level: focus on Federalism and smaller government.  I'm sure that he'll get flack from dogmatic Libertarians who criticize his position on heroin, but I'd challenge them: the libertarian's concern shouldn't be specific (and debatable) issues like heroin, but the larger problem of government encroaching our lives.  Hats off to Barr for recognizing this crucial difference in communicating the libertarian message to the US electorate.

At one time, I was heavily involved in the Libertarian Party, but I've completely pulled out to focus on my career.  Once I have more financial resources and time, perhaps I'll return, but for now, I just can't be satisfied with a party that's happy with infighting and squeaking by with 2% of the vote.  However, if people like Barr start to make their mark in the Party, that might accelerate my return. . . we'll have to see how the 2008 Libertarian Convention shakes out.  I'd love to see a Paul-Barr ticket, but that's probably unlikely.

April 09, 2008

Forecasting Fact and Fiction

410_saddam_and_dinner Earlier today, I commented on a blog post that had wild speculative remarks about Powerset.  The author sent me an e-mail back, noting that the piece was actually satirical.  I would have left the comment even if I had noticed: what about other people that stumble upon the article and don't realize that it's satire?  As a steward for Powerset's brand, I want to make sure that people know what's true and what's false.

But, I was reminded that the line between truth and fiction on the Web is very fuzzy.  People's doctored profiles oftentimes bear little, if any resemblance to their real-word referents.  One might suggest that reference is foundational to truth, but then one would be adhering to a much maligned philosophical tradition.  There are also facts that are only true in some contexts.  For example, in the Wikipedia article about Saddam Hussein in South Park, it's true that Saddam was killed by Satan, but we know that in the real world, Saddam was hanged.  The "right" answer to "Who killed Saddam Hussein" depends on what you're talking about; and both answers might be interesting, regardless of their truth value.  Satire presents another problem.  Though something might be written full of "incorrect" information, the piece overall might have a lot of meaning and value.  Normative statements are especially hairy.  The truth of "George Bush is an idiot" depends on what your definition of "idiot" is. Truth seems to be elusive.

Inbound links, anchor text, and hundreds of other signals might be useful in determining the popularity of a page, but it's not clear to a dumb marketing guy like me how to construct a signal for truth.  The source isn't much of a help, because sites like Valleywag report truths, half-truths, and fantasy all under a single umbrella.  A fact's frequency might be some kind of help, but what happens when a fictional story of a historical character gets more internet play than his real story?

Part of the problem might be our inability to give an adequate theory of truth, but the same might be said about popularity in a pre-Google world.  Google helped to shape our version of popularity by giving popularity a formal definition, but only because that definition agreed with our common sense notion of popularity.  When you see bad search results, Google can't scold you and tell you that your ideas of popularity is wrong according to their definition.  Rather, it has to figure out how to conform it's definition to the majority of people.

From that angle, maybe my worries are unfounded.  People seem to have a good eye for differentiating fact from fiction, even with (or especially because?) all of the information available on the Web.  My selfish concern, of course, is to make sure that Powerset returns the "right" answers to questions, but the definition of "right" is the crux of the problem.

No answers here, just a bunch of questions.  That's why I love philosophy!

April 04, 2008

My Untidy Bush

Mark at  Party
The LA Times today reported why I have an "untidy bush growing on my chin and upper lip area." (Hat's off to Frank Zappa for the phrase "upper lip area.") A number of employees here at Powerset have banded together for an underground project: Powerstache.  I, for one, am ready to go under the razor, but not until launch. . .

 

A Real-Live Re-Captcha

Picture_17
In case you don't know, reCAPTCHA is used to verify that you're a real human by showing you two words scanned out of a text, one known and one unknown.  The second word is hard to make out, but can be read very inappropriately.  Yikes!

April 03, 2008

What's in a name?

Every company hits an inevitable point where it decides to think about picking a new name.  So many freakin' considerations: is the URL available?  Is the name spellable? Does it accurately describe the product/company?  Does it evoke positive images?  Does it have good "mouthfeel"?  Does it make our company serious/goofy/intellectual/consumer-friendly/etc.?  Is it already being used?  Does it look too much like our competitors?  Will it last?  Is there a racial slur in the middle of it?  Can it be used as a verb?

All in all though, I find a lot of these discussions meander through meaningless sessions of creativity.  Look at some of the biggest internet companies.  I can only imagine the conversations with these names:

  • Flickr - it's too trendy, hard to spell, and sounds goofy
  • Google - is an incorrect spelling of an existing term, suggests that the company is huge and powerful, and look at those damn Crayola colors
  • Yahoo - another goofy name and what does that say about our directory?  And what about the people who have actually read Gulliver's Travels and know that a "yahoo" isn't a good thing to be?
  • eBay - there are too many companies "eEverything" and we'll get lost in the noise.  And what the hell does a "Bay" have to do with auctions?
  • Amazon - shouldn't we get "books.com"?

Brands that succeed get all sorts of retrofitted praise.  "I love the playful colors of the Google logo that comfort users even though they're using a complex technology."  The reality is that young companies should spend more time thinking about their messaging and positioning and less time thinking about their brand.  The time spent in considering how to talk to the press, how to have a conversation about your product in the blogosphere, and how to frame user problems is much more valuable than establishing an over-thought brand with no market traction. 

Sure, if you're P&G, brand-management suddenly becomes important.  But let's face it: what the Hell does a name matter for an unknown startup?  I remember back when Kosmix was being renamed from its old company name: Cosmix.  For all the time we spent looking at alternatives, we just changed the "c" to a "k."  The time was well spent, however, in that thinking about the name forced us to consider how to position Kosmix against our competitors.

Has anyone else been involved in product or company naming discussions?  I'm curious to know if there's a good process or good experiences out there.

March 20, 2008

What I learned from the Social Networking Toolkit

One must approach an alleged "geek" breakfast taking place before 10:00 am with a hearty dose of skepticism.  Especially at a "world famous" diner in Union Square (tourists will buy anything).  Nonetheless, I trudged over to Union Square with Julie Crabill of SHIFT at 8:30 a.m. this morning for a Social Media Club Breakfast.  Was actually a bit fun, though the pancakes were unremarkable.  The crowd consisted of a strong faction of PR peeps, flanked by hi-tech marketing slaves, and social media wonks.  However, my favorite part outside of the excellent chatter was certainly the Social Networking Toolkit, thanks to Mr. Jeff Pulver.

Chris Lynn

The SNT contains a pen, two Hello tags (for one's username/message and one's bio), stickers for "tags," and Post-It Notes for a "wall." This simple formula schooled me in social media:

  • To find out if a person is interesting, talking to them is quicker than reading all of their stickers.
  • Those with the most stickers were usually the ones that gave the most stickers.
  • A corollary to the above is: the more stickers on you, the more you're expected to stick other people.
  • Attractive people attract other attractive people; but loud people get the most attention.
  • Birds of a feather tend to flock and form cliques.
  • People tagged me with words that would only be helpful to that person.
  • At least 50% of the total stickers were written by their owners.
  • The more tags you have on you, the more you look like a MySpace page.
  • Usernames are ridiculous and conceal your identity.
  • I mostly talked to the people I knew.
  • And, most importantly: it takes an offline metaphor about stickers to teach me the fundamentals of social media.

Sincerely,
philosophygeek (photos @ Flickr)